The Ministry of land and resourcesRecently released the revised idleLandDisposal of idle land, the definition and punishment made more explicit provisions, which require not for the development of a full year, in accordance with the land transfer or transfer the cost of twenty percent levy Tudexianzhifei; not for development for two years, will be free of charge to recover the state-owned construction land use right, the new regulations shall be implemented as of July 1, 2012.China revised front idle land disposal was published for 10 years, but useless, because the provisions of unused reason has two kinds, namely local government and enterprise, the government is not held, but the provisions such as ?empty basket?. Long-term since, the government and developers is the game?s partner, therefore, China most of idle land to ?government?, leading to long-term legal idle land.The new approach will be the last empty ?government? specific, lists several recognized. But, even so, local government if allowed the developers delayed development, also will be very easy to provide reasonable ?government?, therefore, new approaches are still not deterrence. However, the new approach can be local government urge developers started as soon as possible excuse, because China is currently in urgent need of initiation of real estate and land market, in order to alleviate the financial pressure of local government, it reflects the Chinese government a financial anxiety. That is to say, the idle land disposal may contribute to the ?dismantling? government business in the land ?try? coalition of interests.The local government transfer a large number of land, because the real estate regulatory reasons, most do not have development. As a result of these land money just to pay a deposit, local government must wait until the developers willPropertyAll sales in order to get full payment of land transfer, therefore, the local government and not in these have been sold but the land idle funds. This massive idle and lead to further sales of land becomes difficult. For example, in Beijing in May, including residential land, commercial land, multifunctional, management sex to use the land of zero transaction records. The city of 20 keys of countrywide land leasing in May 23700000000 yuan, a record in 2009 March low before May, accumulative total of 189260000000 yuan, down 114100000000 yuan.Such a vicious spiral makes local government land finance is faced with ?nothing?, and encounters double dilemma: one is the massive debt pressure, especially in the past few years the rapid expansion of local financing platform after the crisis, from this year to the next few years in the repaymentPeak; secondly, Chinese current needs local government increaseInvestmentThe realization of ?economic growth? target, and investment projects need a certain capital to obtain credit, if not rely on selling land, local government is very hard to get enough money to have another round of investment.Local government can only hope to land market to be active, to relieve the fiscal and financial pressure. The key of the problem depends on whether the real estate market and the huge demand to digest these lands, and meet the needs of local government the expanding demand for funds, if blindly push supply pull the economy far exceeds the demand, will bring huge excess.We believe that in the real estate is still subject to strict regulation policy environment, developers will only residential stock sale, namely cash is likely to proceed to the next stage of the investment plan, otherwise, if forced them to start will be secure. Therefore, it requires developers as soon as the development of the practice of land is to transfer risk to banks and developers, the long term impact on financial stability. The government should not only consider the immediate interests and ignore the risk.At the same time, we believe that the Chinese housing demand is gradually reduced, due to the population policy reasons, future demand and supply will show the opposite trend, we are in a real estate boom times inflection point. China needs to be vigilant to large-scale real estate development and ignore market changes, to prevent the real estate bubble to the future of a country with chains.More realistic considerations, China?s housing supply may have excess, because a high proportion of investment houses, they still enjoy the appreciation of the illusion did not enter the market two. Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau recently survey, check Beijing vacant housing 3812000 households, even though there may be some statistical errors, but this figure is great. On the national level, two or three city also presents huge excess supply, because the system interior door family generally low for at least 2 more houses. The government recently two years large-scale investment in affordable housing if listed, and superfluous phenomenon will be more severe.
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